Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 Oct, 2011 0:00 GMT
Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
