S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 22 Jan, 2021 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone ELOISE is currently located near 19.5 S 35.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). ELOISE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ELOISE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beira (19.8 S, 34.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nova Sofala (20.1 S, 34.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Zimbabwe
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
South Africa
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Chinde (18.8 S, 36.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Machece (19.2 S, 35.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nova Mambone (21.0 S, 35.0 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Inhassore (21.5 S, 35.1 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Chimoio (19.1 S, 33.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Quelimane (17.9 S, 36.9 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently
Masvingo (21.0 S, 31.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
