S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Jan, 2018 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm AVA is currently located near 21.2 S 48.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
