S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 5 Jan, 2018 0:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone AVA is currently located near 17.2 S 50.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). AVA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. AVA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
