N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2016 3:00 GMT
Hurricane MATTHEW is currently located near 14.1 N 68.8 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). MATTHEW is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MATTHEW is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
Aruba
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.