TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JOAQUIN

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 23.8 N 73.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JOAQUIN

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2015 21:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 24.3 N 73.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JOAQUIN

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2015 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 24.7 N 72.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
    Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
        probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JOAQUIN

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2015 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AL11) currently located near 25.4 N 72.5 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.