NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Dec, 2016 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN is currently located near 11.8 N 133.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). NOCK-TEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
