S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 4 Mar, 2017 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone ENAWO is currently located near 13.7 S 56.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). ENAWO is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ENAWO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 72 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
