Very Intense TC GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT
Very Intense TC GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
