N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2017 3:00 GMT
Tropical Storm MARIA is currently located near 12.5 N 53.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Guadeloupe
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
Dominica
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
Martinique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Montserrat
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Anguilla
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
St. Lucia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Barbados
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours
the British Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
Puerto Rico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
the Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
