TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Feb, 2022 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI is currently located near 16.4 S 62.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). BATSIRAI is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BATSIRAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mauritius
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    Reunion
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2022 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI is currently located near 15.7 S 63.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). BATSIRAI is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BATSIRAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mauritius
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Reunion
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 120 hours
    Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
    Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
    Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
    Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).