S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 5 Feb, 2017 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm CARLOS is currently located near 17.4 S 56.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). CARLOS is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Reunion
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
