NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Jun, 2015 3:00 GMT
Hurricane CARLOS (03E) currently located near 15.5 N 100.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
