N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 29 Oct, 2015 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm FOUR (04A) currently located near 13.5 N 64.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)Oman
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yemen
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Salalah (17.0 N, 54.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Damqawt (16.6 N, 52.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Al Mukalla (15.0 N, 50.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Qalansiyah (12.7 N, 53.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
