Global Alert Monitor: September 2011

Friday, September 30, 2011

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 90% currently
China
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 90% currently
China
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
China
probability for TS is 90% currently
Laos
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
China
probability for TS is 90% currently
Laos
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

Thursday, September 29, 2011

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Macau
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Macau
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 60% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NESAT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Macau
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Vietnam
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Macau
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Vietnam
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm NALGAE

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NALGAE (22W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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