TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone BEJISA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Dec, 2013 18:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 15.2 S 53.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Tropical Cyclone BEJISA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Dec, 2013 6:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone BEJISA (06S) currently located near 13.3 S 53.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Mauritius
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.