S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Apr, 2016 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone FANTALA is currently located near 9.8 S 51.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). FANTALA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FANTALA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Seychelles
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Providence Is. (9.2 S, 51.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 5% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 5% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
