NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm WIPHA (25W) currently located near 16.1 N 139.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Friday, October 11, 2013
[Tsunami Message - IOC] NWS-NTWC Tsunami Information Statement
WEXX32 PAAQ 120221
TIBATE
PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1021 PM AST FRI OCT 11 2013
...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THE U.S. AND CANADA
EAST COASTS/ GULF OF MEXICO STATES/PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
EVALUATION
----------
* THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.
* BASED ON EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI RECORDS
THE EARTHQUAKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE A TSUNAMI.
* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW.
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.0
* ORIGIN TIME 2211 EDT OCT 11 2013
2211 AST OCT 11 2013
2111 CDT OCT 11 2013
0211 UTC OCT 12 2013
* COORDINATES 10.8 NORTH 62.2 WEST
* DEPTH 53 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
* CARIBBEAN COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
$$
TIBATE
PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1021 PM AST FRI OCT 11 2013
...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THE U.S. AND CANADA
EAST COASTS/ GULF OF MEXICO STATES/PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
EVALUATION
----------
* THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.
* BASED ON EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI RECORDS
THE EARTHQUAKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE A TSUNAMI.
* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW.
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.0
* ORIGIN TIME 2211 EDT OCT 11 2013
2211 AST OCT 11 2013
2111 CDT OCT 11 2013
0211 UTC OCT 12 2013
* COORDINATES 10.8 NORTH 62.2 WEST
* DEPTH 53 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
* CARIBBEAN COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
$$
TSR Storm Alert - Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN
N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 17.4 N 86.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 17.4 N 86.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
[Tsunami Message - IOC] Tsunami Information Statement
TSUNAMI STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0219 UTC SAT OCT 12 2013
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
... TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT ...
THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0210Z 12 OCT 2013
COORDINATES - 10.8 NORTH 62.2 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
MAGNITUDE - 6.0
EVALUATION
A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER - THERE IS THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0219 UTC SAT OCT 12 2013
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
... TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT ...
THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0210Z 12 OCT 2013
COORDINATES - 10.8 NORTH 62.2 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
MAGNITUDE - 6.0
EVALUATION
A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER - THERE IS THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.4 N 118.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 85% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Laos
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Cambodia
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.4 N 118.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 85% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Laos
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Cambodia
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN
N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 16.9 N 87.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 16.9 N 87.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.4 N 120.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.4 N 120.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm WIPHA
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT
Tropical Storm WIPHA (25W) currently located near 14.7 N 140.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Tropical Storm WIPHA (25W) currently located near 14.7 N 140.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN
N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 16.7 N 87.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 16.7 N 87.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.3 N 122.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Yasothon (15.8 N, 104.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Ubon Ratchathani (15.2 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.3 N 122.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Yasothon (15.8 N, 104.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Ubon Ratchathani (15.2 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN
N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 16.1 N 88.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 16.1 N 88.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.4 N 123.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Ubon Ratchathani (15.2 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.4 N 123.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Ubon Ratchathani (15.2 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
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