S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2013 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 20.0 S 50.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2013 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 20.0 S 50.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone FELLENG
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2013 6:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 18.2 S 51.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2013 6:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 18.2 S 51.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 18.2 S 51.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 31 Jan, 2013 6:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone FELLENG (13S) currently located near 18.2 S 51.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
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