TSR Storm Alert - Intense Tropical Cyclone BELNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Dec, 2019 18:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone BELNA is currently located near 10.9 S 47.2 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). BELNA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BELNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cosmoledo Is. (9.5 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently
    Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 36 hours
    Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone BELNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 7 Dec, 2019 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone BELNA is currently located near 9.6 S 47.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). BELNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BELNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cosmoledo Is. (9.5 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mayotte
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dzaoudzi (12.8 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Soalala (16.1 S, 45.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Mahajanga (15.7 S, 46.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).