TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon USAGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Sep, 2013 0:00 GMT

Super Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 19.2 N 125.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon USAGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2013 18:00 GMT

Super Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 18.7 N 126.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon USAGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2013 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 18.2 N 127.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon USAGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2013 6:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 17.6 N 128.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.