SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Dec, 2012 0:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.0 S 172.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
probability for TS is 90% currently
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Dec, 2012 0:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.0 S 172.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
probability for TS is 90% currently
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
TSR Storm Alert - Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 18:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.4 S 171.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 18:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.4 S 171.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.4 S 171.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 18:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.4 S 171.7 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone EVAN
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 12:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.7 S 171.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 12:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.7 S 171.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.7 S 171.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 12:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.7 S 171.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone EVAN
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 6:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.9 S 171.4 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 6:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.9 S 171.4 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.9 S 171.4 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2012 6:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone EVAN (04P) currently located near 13.9 S 171.4 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Apia (13.8 S, 171.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Asau (13.4 S, 172.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Fiji
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mata-Utu (13.3 S, 176.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Naduri (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
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