TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon USAGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Sep, 2013 12:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 22.9 N 115.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon USAGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Sep, 2013 6:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI (17W) currently located near 22.4 N 116.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Ganzhou (25.7 N, 115.0 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.