TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane PATRICIA

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Oct, 2015 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 16.2 N 105.1 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane PATRICIA

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2015 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 15.4 N 104.6 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Guadalajara (20.7 N, 103.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane PATRICIA

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2015 18:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 15.0 N 104.0 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 18 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 30 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 18 hours
    Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 30 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane PATRICIA

NE Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Oct, 2015 9:00 GMT

Hurricane PATRICIA (20E) currently located near 14.3 N 102.3 W is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
    Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.