SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Jan, 2016 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone ULA is currently located near 18.6 S 173.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). ULA is a category category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ULA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
New Caledonia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
