TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone NATHAN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2015 18:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone NATHAN (18P) currently located near 14.7 S 145.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Coen (13.9 S, 143.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nhulunbuy (12.2 S, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone NATHAN

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2015 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone NATHAN (18P) currently located near 14.7 S 146.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Coen (13.9 S, 143.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Edward River (15.0 S, 141.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Kowanyama (15.8 S, 141.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
    Weipa (12.6 S, 142.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 48 hours
    Nhulunbuy (12.2 S, 136.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.