NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2016 12:00 GMT
Tropical Storm SARIKA is currently located near 13.9 N 126.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). SARIKA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
