S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Feb, 2023 0:00 GMT
Very Intense TC FREDDY is currently located near 18.1 S 60.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). FREDDY is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. FREDDY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
Reunion
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 72 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Nova Mambone (21.0 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
