NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 May, 2015 0:00 GMT
Typhoon NOUL (06W) currently located near 9.4 N 137.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
