S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Jan, 2018 0:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA is currently located near 18.2 S 61.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). BERGUITTA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BERGUITTA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Reunion
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
