TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon HAIYAN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 8 Nov, 2013 0:00 GMT

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (31W) currently located near 11.0 N 124.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon HAIYAN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Nov, 2013 18:00 GMT

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (31W) currently located near 10.6 N 127.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Phan Rang (11.6 N, 109.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon HAIYAN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Nov, 2013 12:00 GMT

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (31W) currently located near 10.2 N 129.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon HAIYAN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 Nov, 2013 6:00 GMT

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (31W) currently located near 9.3 N 131.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.