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Wednesday, January 18, 2023

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRENE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Jan, 2023 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRENE is currently located near 19.6 S 169.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). IRENE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRENE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2023 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRENE is currently located near 18.8 S 166.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). IRENE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm CHENESO

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2023 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm CHENESO is currently located near 13.5 S 51.7 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). CHENESO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Ambilobe (13.0 S, 49.1 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Hell-Ville (13.3 S, 48.3 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRENE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2023 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRENE is currently located near 18.3 S 165.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). IRENE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm EIGHT

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2023 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EIGHT is currently located near 13.8 S 54.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). EIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
        probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRENE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 18 Jan, 2023 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRENE is currently located near 18.0 S 163.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). IRENE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    New Caledonia
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
0649 UTC WED JAN 18 2023

...PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

NOTE MAGNITUDE IS NOW 7.0

NO HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI EXPECTED.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.0
* ORIGIN TIME 0606 UTC JAN 18 2023
* COORDINATES 2.8 NORTH 127.1 EAST
* DEPTH 60 KM / 38 MILES
* LOCATION MOLUCCA SEA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.0 OCCURRED IN
THE MOLUCCA SEA AT 0606 UTC ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 18 2023.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS
EARTHQUAKE HAS NOW PASSED.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* THERE IS NO LONGER A TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* REMAIN OBSERVANT AND EXERCISE NORMAL CAUTION NEAR THE SEA.
OTHERWISE... NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
NEW INFORMATION IS RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
0612 UTC WED JAN 18 2023

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.2
* ORIGIN TIME 0606 UTC JAN 18 2023
* COORDINATES 2.8 NORTH 127.1 EAST
* DEPTH 60 KM / 38 MILES
* LOCATION MOLUCCA SEA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.2 OCCURRED IN
THE MOLUCCA SEA AT 0606 UTC ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 18 2023.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 300 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

INDONESIA.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITH A POTENTIAL TSUNAMI THREAT. ACTUAL ARRIVAL
TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
------------------------------------------------------------
TABUKAN TENGAH INDONESIA 3.6N 125.6E 0630 01/18
BEREBERE INDONESIA 2.5N 128.7E 0635 01/18
GEME INDONESIA 4.6N 126.8E 0637 01/18
MANADO INDONESIA 1.6N 124.9E 0645 01/18


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$