NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Jul, 2015 18:00 GMT
Typhoon NANGKA (11W) currently located near 22.1 N 136.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) South Korea
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 72 hours
Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 96 hours
Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.