NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2015 0:00 GMT
Typhoon DUJUAN (21W) currently located near 22.2 N 127.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
