N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 6 Sep, 2017 3:00 GMT
Intense Hurricane IRMA is currently located near 17.4 N 61.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 160 kts (184 mph). IRMA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Guadeloupe
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Anguilla
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
the British Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
the Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Montserrat
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Puerto Rico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
Dominica
probability for TS is 60% currently
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Nassau (25.1 N, 77.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
