[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
0413 UTC TUE DEC 14 2021

..PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.

NOTE THE REVISED MAGNITUDE OF 7.3


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.3
* ORIGIN TIME 0320 UTC DEC 14 2021
* COORDINATES 7.8 SOUTH 122.3 EAST
* DEPTH 76 KM / 47 MILES
* LOCATION FLORES SEA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.3 OCCURRED IN
THE FLORES SEA AT 0320 UTC ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 14 2021.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS
EARTHQUAKE HAS NOW PASSED.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* THERE IS NO LONGER A TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* REMAIN OBSERVANT AND EXERCISE NORMAL CAUTION NEAR THE SEA.
OTHERWISE... NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* MINOR SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR IN SOME COASTAL AREAS
NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
NEW INFORMATION IS RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
0328 UTC TUE DEC 14 2021

..PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.6
* ORIGIN TIME 0320 UTC DEC 14 2021
* COORDINATES 7.8 SOUTH 122.3 EAST
* DEPTH 76 KM / 47 MILES
* LOCATION FLORES SEA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.6 OCCURRED IN
THE FLORES SEA AT 0320 UTC ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 14 2021.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 1000 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 1000 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

NO AREAS COVERED BY THIS MESSAGE APPEAR TO BE IMMEDIATELY
THREATENED. HOWEVER... THE SITUATION IS STILL UNDER
INVESTIGATION. THIS THREAT EVALUATION WILL BE UPDATED AS
SOON AS FURTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RUBY

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Dec, 2021 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RUBY is currently located near 21.2 S 165.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). RUBY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% currently

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RAI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Dec, 2021 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RAI is currently located near 7.4 N 136.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 50kts (58 mph). RAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Pagadian (7.9 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RUBY

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2021 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RUBY is currently located near 20.1 S 163.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). RUBY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RAI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2021 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RAI is currently located near 6.8 N 138.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). RAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
    Pagadian (7.9 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RAI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2021 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm RAI is currently located near 6.0 N 139.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 35kts (40 mph). RAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Pagadian (7.9 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 120 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone RUBY

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2021 12:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone RUBY is currently located near 19.2 S 162.3 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). RUBY is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. RUBY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression TWENTYEIGHT

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2021 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTYEIGHT is currently located near 5.2 N 141.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). TWENTYEIGHT is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Koror (7.3 N, 134.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
    Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Pagadian (7.9 N, 123.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
    Davao (7.1 N, 125.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
    Mati (7.0 N, 126.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
    Bonobono (8.7 N, 117.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 120 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone RUBY

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Dec, 2021 6:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone RUBY is currently located near 18.1 S 161.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). RUBY is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. RUBY is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    New Caledonia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Vanuatu
        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).