TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm MELOR

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Dec, 2015 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MELOR (28W) currently located near 14.0 N 119.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm MELOR

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Dec, 2015 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MELOR (28W) currently located near 16.0 N 119.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% currently
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 60% currently

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm MELOR

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Dec, 2015 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm MELOR (28W) currently located near 15.3 N 119.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.