TSR Storm Alert - Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 15.8 N 88.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.7 N 124.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Ubon Ratchathani (15.2 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 15.6 N 89.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2013 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.5 N 125.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 15.4 N 90.3 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2013 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.9 N 126.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT

Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B) currently located near 14.9 N 91.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Puri (19.8 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Cuttack (20.5 N, 85.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NARI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2013 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NARI (24W) currently located near 15.2 N 126.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Cambodia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Thailand
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.