SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Mar, 2015 0:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone PAM (17P) currently located near 11.0 S 169.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)Vanuatu
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tasmaori (14.9 S, 168.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Paeu (11.7 S, 166.8 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
