NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 16 Dec, 2021 0:00 GMT
Super Typhoon RAI is currently located near 9.7 N 127.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 140 kts (161 mph). RAI is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. RAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Surigao (9.7 N, 125.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Lianga (8.7 N, 126.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Dumaguete (9.3 N, 123.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Bislig (8.2 N, 126.3 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Dipolog (8.7 N, 123.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Puerto Princesa (9.8 N, 118.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 96 hours
Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 96 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
