Global Alert Monitor: 09/18/17

Monday, September 18, 2017

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane MARIA

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2017 3:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MARIA is currently located near 15.5 N 61.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 140 kts (161 mph). MARIA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Guadeloupe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Dominica
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Martinique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montserrat
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Puerto Rico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Anguilla
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JOSE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2017 3:00 GMT

Hurricane JOSE is currently located near 35.2 N 71.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). JOSE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOSE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane MARIA

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2017 0:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MARIA is currently located near 15.3 N 61.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 140 kts (161 mph). MARIA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Dominica
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadeloupe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Martinique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Montserrat
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 18 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 18 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 18 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 6 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 30 hours
    Puerto Rico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 42 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 30 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 18 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 18 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 18 hours
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Anguilla
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 30 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 30 hours
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 66 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 66 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 90 hours
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 66 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 30 hours
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 42 hours
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 66 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane MARIA

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane MARIA is currently located near 15.1 N 60.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). MARIA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Dominica
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Martinique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadeloupe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Montserrat
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Puerto Rico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Lucia
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    St. Kitts and Nevis
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Anguilla
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    the Bahamas
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JOSE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2017 21:00 GMT

Hurricane JOSE is currently located near 34.8 N 71.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). JOSE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOSE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JOSE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2017 15:00 GMT

Hurricane JOSE is currently located near 33.9 N 71.1 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). JOSE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOSE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane MARIA

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2017 12:00 GMT

Hurricane MARIA is currently located near 14.6 N 59.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 95 kts (109 mph). MARIA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. MARIA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Martinique
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 6 hours
    Dominica
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 18 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 18 hours
    Guadeloupe
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 18 hours
        probability for TS is 80% within 6 hours
    Antigua and Barbuda
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 30 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 30 hours
    Montserrat
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 18 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Netherlands Antilles
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 30 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 30 hours
    Anguilla
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 30 hours
    the Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 30 hours
    Puerto Rico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 42 hours
    St. Lucia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 6 hours
        probability for TS is 60% within 6 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 42 hours
    the Dominican Republic
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 66 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 66 hours
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 90 hours
    Haiti
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 90 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 42 hours
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 42 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 42 hours
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 66 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 66 hours
    Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 66 hours
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 90 hours
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 90 hours
        probability for TS is 25% in about 90 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JOSE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Sep, 2017 9:00 GMT

Hurricane JOSE is currently located near 33.0 N 71.4 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). JOSE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. JOSE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

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Monday, September 18, 2017