N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 4 Sep, 2017 3:00 GMT
Intense Hurricane IRMA is currently located near 17.2 N 51.0 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). IRMA is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. IRMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Guadeloupe
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
the British Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
the Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
Anguilla
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
Montserrat
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
Puerto Rico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 117 hours
Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
