NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Dec, 2015 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm MELOR (28W) currently located near 10.5 N 134.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
