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Wednesday, August 18, 2021

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm HENRI

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2021 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HENRI is currently located near 29.8 N 68.5 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 60kts (69 mph). HENRI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane GRACE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 19 Aug, 2021 3:00 GMT

Hurricane GRACE is currently located near 19.8 N 85.6 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). GRACE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. GRACE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
        probability for TS is 60% currently
    Belize
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Merida (21.0 N, 89.6 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Campeche (19.9 N, 90.5 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane GRACE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2021 21:00 GMT

Hurricane GRACE is currently located near 19.7 N 83.7 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 70 kts (81 mph). GRACE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. GRACE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
        probability for TS is 85% currently
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Merida (21.0 N, 89.6 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane GRACE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2021 15:00 GMT

Hurricane GRACE is currently located near 19.4 N 82.2 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). GRACE is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. GRACE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Cayman Islands
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cuba
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1116 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

..PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.1
* ORIGIN TIME 1010 UTC AUG 18 2021
* COORDINATES 14.9 SOUTH 166.9 EAST
* DEPTH 84 KM / 52 MILES
* LOCATION VANUATU


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.1 OCCURRED IN
THE VANUATU ISLANDS AT 1010 UTC ON WEDNESDAY AUGUST 18 2021.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS
EARTHQUAKE HAS NOW PASSED.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* THERE IS NO LONGER A TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* REMAIN OBSERVANT AND EXERCISE NORMAL CAUTION NEAR THE SEA.
OTHERWISE... NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* MINOR SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR IN SOME COASTAL AREAS
NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
NEW INFORMATION IS RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1015 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

..PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.1
* ORIGIN TIME 1010 UTC AUG 18 2021
* COORDINATES 14.9 SOUTH 166.9 EAST
* DEPTH 84 KM / 52 MILES
* LOCATION VANUATU


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.1 OCCURRED IN
THE VANUATU ISLANDS AT 1010 UTC ON WEDNESDAY AUGUST 18 2021.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 300 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

VANUATU.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITH A POTENTIAL TSUNAMI THREAT. ACTUAL ARRIVAL
TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
------------------------------------------------------------
ESPERITU SANTO VANUATU 15.1S 167.3E 1027 08/18


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GRACE

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2021 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GRACE is currently located near 18.8 N 80.9 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 55kts (63 mph). GRACE is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Cayman Islands
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).