Tropical Cyclone LUA (17S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.6 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Newman (23.3 S, 119.6 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Mar, 2012 18:00 GMT
Tropical Cyclone LUA (17S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Australia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Wallal Downs (19.8 S, 120.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Marble Bar (21.2 S, 119.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nullagine (21.9 S, 120.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Anna Plains (19.3 S, 121.6 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Tom Price (22.8 S, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Newman (23.3 S, 119.6 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
