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Sunday, December 25, 2016

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NOCK-TEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 26 Dec, 2016 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NOCK-TEN is currently located near 13.6 N 121.5 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 80 kts (92 mph). NOCK-TEN is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NOCK-TEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NOCK-TEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Dec, 2016 18:00 GMT

Typhoon NOCK-TEN is currently located near 13.5 N 123.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph). NOCK-TEN is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NOCK-TEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1531 UTC SUN DEC 25 2016

..PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.6
* ORIGIN TIME 1422 UTC DEC 25 2016
* COORDINATES 43.3 SOUTH 74.5 WEST
* DEPTH 15 KM / 9 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTHERN CHILE


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.6 OCCURRED IN
SOUTHERN CHILE AT 1422 UTC ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 25 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS
EARTHQUAKE HAS NOW PASSED.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* THERE IS NO LONGER A TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* REMAIN OBSERVANT AND EXERCISE NORMAL CAUTION NEAR THE SEA.
OTHERWISE... NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* MINOR SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR IN SOME COASTAL AREAS
NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
--------------------

* THE FOLLOWING ARE TSUNAMI WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL
AND/OR DEEP-OCEAN SEA LEVEL GAUGES AT THE INDICATED
LOCATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS MEASURED WITH
RESPECT TO THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL.

GAUGE TIME OF MAXIMUM WAVE
COORDINATES MEASURE TSUNAMI PERIOD
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON (UTC) HEIGHT (MIN)
-------------------------------------------------------------
PUERTO MELINKA CL 43.9S 73.7W 1458 0.08M/ 0.2FT 34


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
NEW INFORMATION IS RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1451 UTC SUN DEC 25 2016

..PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.7
* ORIGIN TIME 1422 UTC DEC 25 2016
* COORDINATES 43.3 SOUTH 74.5 WEST
* DEPTH 15 KM / 9 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTHERN CHILE


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.7 OCCURRED IN
SOUTHERN CHILE AT 1422 UTC ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 25 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 1 TO 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF

CHILE.


* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED IF
NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
------------------------------------------------------------
CORRAL CHILE 39.8S 73.5W 1522 12/25
GOLFO DE PENAS CHILE 47.1S 74.9W 1531 12/25
TALCAHUANO CHILE 36.7S 73.1W 1548 12/25
PUERTO MONTT CHILE 41.5S 73.0W 1701 12/25


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] NWS-NTWC Tsunami Information Statement

WEAK53 PAAQ 251431
TIBAK1

Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
631 AM PST Sun Dec 25 2016

..THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA, BRITISH
COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...

EVALUATION
----------
* There is no tsunami danger for the areas listed above.

* Based on earthquake information and historic tsunami records
the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a tsunami.

* An earthquake has occurred with parameters listed below.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
assessment and changes may occur.

* Magnitude 7.7
* Origin Time 0522 AKST Dec 25 2016
0622 PST Dec 25 2016
1422 UTC Dec 25 2016
* Coordinates 43.3 South 74.5 West
* Depth 9 miles
* Location in southern Chile


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Refer to the internet site ntwc.arh.noaa.gov for
additional information.

* Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon,
Washington, British Columbia and Alaska should refer to the
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages at ptwc.weather.gov.

* This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning center
message for this event unless additional information becomes
available.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1428 UTC SUN DEC 25 2016

..PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.7
* ORIGIN TIME 1422 UTC DEC 25 2016
* COORDINATES 43.3 SOUTH 74.5 WEST
* DEPTH 15 KM / 9 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTHERN CHILE


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.7 OCCURRED IN
SOUTHERN CHILE AT 1422 UTC ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 25 2016.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 1000 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 1000 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

CHILE.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITH A POTENTIAL TSUNAMI THREAT. ACTUAL ARRIVAL
TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
------------------------------------------------------------
CORRAL CHILE 39.8S 73.5W 1522 12/25
GOLFO DE PENAS CHILE 47.1S 74.9W 1531 12/25
TALCAHUANO CHILE 36.7S 73.1W 1548 12/25
PUERTO MONTT CHILE 41.5S 73.0W 1701 12/25


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NOCK-TEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Dec, 2016 12:00 GMT

Typhoon NOCK-TEN is currently located near 13.5 N 124.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 130 kts (150 mph). NOCK-TEN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NOCK-TEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon NOCK-TEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 25 Dec, 2016 6:00 GMT

Typhoon NOCK-TEN is currently located near 13.5 N 125.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 135 kts (155 mph). NOCK-TEN is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NOCK-TEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for TS is 80% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.