S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 4 Feb, 2022 0:00 GMT
Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI is currently located near 19.4 S 53.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 105 kts (121 mph). BATSIRAI is a category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. BATSIRAI is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 48 hours
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 72 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Farafangana (22.8 S, 47.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours
Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
