NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 29 Oct, 2013 0:00 GMT
Tropical Depression TWENTYNINE (29W) currently located near 15.3 N 134.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
