S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 6 Mar, 2017 18:00 GMT
Very Intense TC ENAWO is currently located near 14.5 S 52.4 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 125 kts (144 mph). ENAWO is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. ENAWO is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vohimarina (13.3 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Ambilobe (13.0 S, 49.1 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Analalava (14.7 S, 47.8 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Antseranana (12.4 S, 49.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours
Hell-Ville (13.3 S, 48.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
