NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2015 0:00 GMT
Typhoon MELOR (28W) currently located near 13.0 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
